Second-order Thinking

inspired by Refactoring Ideas 95

What is Second-order Thinking?

Second order thinking is a thought exercise and decision making tool helping to see the long term consequences of our actions.

While looking at the immediate consequences of decisions (first-order thinking) tells us what will happen when we make a decision, second-order impact is about the changes that decision will bring in the future.

How to use it?

Two ways to examine the second-order impact:

• Asking “And then what?” - as many times as needed
• As time goes by 10 - consequences in 10 hours / days / weeks / months / years

Examples

When examining a decision it can give us information we didn’t think of before.

decision:
Starting another side project
first-order consequences:
having more tasks, being more tired, having another project on my resume
second-order impact:

• having more tasks → coding longer hours → less time for friends and family
• being more tired → having less energy → not focusing on college → worse grades
• having another project on resume → learning another technology → feeling more confident in my skills → easier time finding a job